VacciNation: Putting the vaccination triple-win at the heart of the new Government’s policy agenda
Executive summary
The importance of vaccines to protect public health was clearly demonstrated during the pandemic. The UK was the first country in the world to approve a COVID-19 vaccine and begin rollout.5 A 2022 report from the National Audit Office found that the ‘collective efforts of many national and local public bodies, scientists, vaccine manufacturers, and individual staff and volunteers, as well as government’s power as a coordinator and funder, (meant) that so many of the programme’s objectives have been met and in some areas exceeded.’6 Such unprecedented action reflected the UK’s history as being a leading country for the development and rollout of vaccines.
Innovation is creating opportunities to use vaccines in the future to tackle a much wider variety of important conditions. In June 2024, the Government announced a new vaccination programme for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) for older adults and pregnant women.7
However there are concerns that a health service under pressure in England is f inding tackling variations in vaccination uptake challenging. Such signs were in evidence before the pandemic, where the UK had lost its ‘measles-free’ status.8 Parts of the country are not meeting WHO uptake targets in important programmes such as flu.9
Our research finds variation in uptake across each of the four adult vaccination programmes (COVID-19, flu, pneumococcal disease and shingles) analysed of between 10 and 20% across England. Seven of the ICBs with the highest uptake rates across the four programmes are in the South West and South East. All five London ICBs are in the bottom 10 for adult vaccination uptake. North Central London ICB is the lowest ranked overall. Eight of the bottom ten ICBs are based in and around major cities: the five London ICBs, plus the two Birmingham ICBs and Greater Manchester ICB. Whilst there is evidence that some progress in increasing vaccination rates has been made, these data reflect similar regional variations observed in our previous research from 2021/2022.10
The reasons for variations in vaccine uptake are multi-faceted and complex, including demographics, levels of deprivation, accessibility, convenience and public confidence.11
With the health system under significant strain, vaccination can help provide an important level of protection, particularly in reducing hospital admissions for the associated conditions during the busy winter months. More widely – and with persistent issues around the under-performance of the UK economy and growing numbers of people out of work due to illness – effective vaccination programmes can improve productivity and deliver economic returns on investments.12 Our research finds that if across two vaccination programmes – for flu and COVID-19 – variations in uptake could be addressed thousands of hospital admissions, sick days and premature deaths could be avoided.
NHS England published a welcome vaccination strategy in December 202313 and vaccination is an embedded priority within important NHS policy frameworks, such as the Core20PLUS5 health inequalities scheme14, the Oversight Framework for NHS Integrated Care Boards15 and the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF).16 But improving vaccine uptake requires Government leadership, investment and action to really succeed and despite specific commitments such as those in the Life Sciences Vision, cross Government action and co-ordination remains piecemeal.17
A new Government creates a new opportunity for concerted action and the development of cross departmental Government ‘missions’ is a chance for a different policy approach. This report argues that improving vaccination uptake should be part of an NHS pivot to prevention; but also part of wider cross government plans both for reducing the gap in healthy life expectancy through the health mission; and improved economic growth through the economic mission and the work of the Industrial Strategy and Life Sciences Council.18,19
In making improved vaccination uptake a Government mission priority for both improved health and wealth, the Government will be able to deliver a vaccination triple win of improved health outcomes, reduced NHS pressures and stronger economic growth.
Summary of findings
There are widespread variations in the uptake of adult vaccinations
There is widespread variation in the uptake of adult vaccination programmes. The gap between the highest and lowest ICB uptakes rates for each of the vaccination programmes analysed is:
COVID-19 – 20.6% gap between the ICB with the highest and lowest vaccine uptake rate20
Seasonal flu – 17.8% gap between the ICB with the highest and lowest vaccine uptake rate21
Pneumococcal disease (PD) – 9.6% gap between the ICB with the highest and lowest vaccine uptake rate22
Shingles – 12.3% gap between the ICB with the highest and lowest vaccine uptake rate 23,24
When assessed across each of the four programmes, four of the top ten ICBs for uptake are in the South West (Gloucestershire ICB, Bath, North East Somerset, Swindon and Wiltshire ICB, Bristol, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire ICB and Dorset ICB), with Gloucestershire ICB ranked as the best overall. There are three ICBs in the South East (Hampshire and Isle of Wight ICB, Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire and Berkshire West ICB and Frimley ICB), two ICBs in the Midlands (Derby and Derbyshire ICB, Herefordshire and Worcestershire ICB) and one in the North East and Yorkshire (North East and North Cumbria ICB). There are no ICBs in the top 10 from London and the North West • All five London ICBs are in the bottom 10 for adult vaccination uptake. North Central London ICB is the lowest ranked. Eight of the bottom ten ICBs are based in and around major cities: the five London ICBs, plus the two Birmingham ICBs and Greater Manchester ICB. The other ICBs with overall rankings in the bottom ten are Northamptonshire ICB and Mid and South Essex ICB
If ICBs with below average vaccination rates could reach the average rate for each of the four programmes, we estimate that an additional 907,142 people would be vaccinated. If all ICBs could deliver rates of adult vaccination at the rate of the top quintile, we estimate that 1,893,282 additional adult vaccinations would be delivered across the four programmes Increasing vaccination rates delivers both health system and economic benefits • If all health systems across England with below average COVID-19 vaccination rates had reached the average vaccination rate in 2021-22, an estimated 6,380 COVID-19 hospital admissions would have been avoided. This would have led to an estimated 28,518 fewer bed days and a related reduction in costs of £23.3 million25 • The COVID-19 vaccination programme of 2021-22 resulted in an estimated 223,278 fewer sick days and an associated economic benefit of £26.3 million. Fewer deaths as a result of COVID-19 vaccination in 2021-22 saved an estimated £673.45 million in productivity costs amongst those of working age and £136.2 million in informal care provision from those over 65. The estimated economic benefit from the COVID-19 vaccination programme in 2021-22 including sick days averted, and reductions in premature mortality in over and under 65s was £836.4 million • A modest improvement in COVID-19 vaccination rates – achieving vaccination rates for both those over 65 and of working age to at least average health system rates across the country – would have delivered an additional £162 million in economic benefits. 26 Under a significant improvement scenario where vaccination rates for both groups reached the highest health system rate recorded across England, an additional £275.3 million in economic benefits would have been recorded • If all ICBs had reached the WHO target for 75% flu vaccination coverage for eligible populations in 2018-19 an estimated 1,829 hospital admissions for flu and 7,278 bed days would have been avoided • The flu vaccination programme resulted in an estimated 154,596 fewer sick days in 2018-19, translating into an economic benefit of £16.3 million. Fewer deaths as a result of flu vaccination saved £63 million in productivity costs amongst those of working age and £8.2 million in informal care provision from those over 65. The estimated economic benefit from the flu vaccination programme in 2018-19 including sick days averted, and reductions in premature mortality in over and under 65s was £87.5 million
5 https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5803/cmselect/cmpubacc/258/report.html
6 https://www.nao.org.uk/reports/the-roll-out-of-the-covid-19-vaccine-in-england/
7 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/respiratory-syncytial-virus-rsv-vaccinationprogramme#:~:text=All%20adults%20turning%2075%20years,undertaken%20at%20the%20earliest%20 opportunity
8 https://ukhsa.blog.gov.uk/2019/08/19/measles-in-england
9 https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resource/adult-flu-vaccination-coverage
12 https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/economicinactivity/datasets/ economicinactivitybyreasonseasonallyadjustedinac01sa
13 https://www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/nhs-vaccination-strategy
15 https://www.england.nhs.uk/publication/nhs-oversight-framework-22-23
16 https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/data-tools-and-services/data-services/general-practice-data-hub/ quality-outcomes-framework-qof
17 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/life-sciences-vision
18 https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Mission-Public-Services.pdf
19 https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Mission-Economy.pdf
This report was commissioned and funded by Pfizer Ltd. The report was authored by Future Health and the content is editorially independent. Pfizer input was restricted to review for ABPI code compliance and factual accuracy only. Pfizer Ltd owns all the copyright, designs, research and all other existing intellectual property rights associated with this report. In addition, the Pfizer name and logo are registered trademarks, and may not be used without Pfizer’s permission.